Voter-Based Reality:Reflections on Super Tuesday

From the Evangelical Outpost Blog, Februrary 6, 2008

During this election cycle we've been exposed to two contrapositive perceptions: pundit-based reality and voter-based reality.

Pundit-based reality is the political simulacra created by the bloggers, journalists, radio talk show hosts, and other confident opiners who understand how the world should work. Voter-based reality is the messy electoral aftermath that occurs after voters cast their ballots and show us how the world actually works. For the past few months we've been living in the pristine bubble of pundit-based reality only to have it popped by the inexplicable actions of the Voter Class.

Here are some of the lessons we learned on Super Tuesday:
Pundit-based reality: Huckabee is stealing votes from Romney.Voter-based reality: Huckabee is competing for votes with McCain.

In the latest USA Today/Gallup poll Huckabee supporters were asked for whom they would vote if the race came down to John McCain or Mitt Romney.

The results showed that McCain wins over Romney as the second choice of Huckabee voters by more than a 2 to 1 margin, 64% to 28%. McCain beats Romney 42% to 24% with Huckabee in the race (Huckabee gets 18% of the vote) and expands that margin to 53% to 30% with Huckabee voters forced to choose between the two candidates.

A more likely scenario is that Romney's continued presence in the race siphoned off votes and support for Huckabee.

Pundit-based reality: Romney is a full-spectrum conservative; he is the only one that can bring together the "Reagan coalition."Voter-based reality: Romney is a poor-man's Michael Bloomberg; he never had a legitimate shot at the nomination.

Out of the six states that Romney won, four were caucuses (MN, ND, CO, MT) that were largely uncontested and favored the candidate with a strong organizational structure. The only primary states Romney was able to win were the ones in which he has previously resided – UT and MA. (The only other primary state that he won before Super Tuesday was another state where he lived – MI.) In other words, Romney can win if he can pay to organize party volunteers at a rally. What he can't seem to do is convince people to go to the polling booth and actually cast a ballot for him.

Without the ability to self-finance his campaign, we would now be referring to Romney as the CINO (conservative in name only) who washed out in Iowa. Sadly, he'll continue on despite the fact that his base of support consists of Mormons, talk radio hosts, and people who really, really, hate McCain.

Pundit-based reality: A McCain-Huckabee ticket would be unacceptable to the party. Voter-based reality: The majority of GOP voters would be fine with a McCain-Huckabee ticket.
Can anyone explain why a ticket comprised of the two candidates that will win/have won the most delegates, as chosen by Republican voters, is considered an unacceptable option for… Republican voters? Are the pundits unaware that the GOP voters that vote in the primaries are the same GOP voters that vote in the general election?

Pundit-based reality: Rush Limbaugh's opinion carries a great deal of weight.Voter-based reality: Thanks, but we can think for ourselves.

Adding to his recent string of embarrassments, Rush Limbaugh made the unforced error of endorsing Mitt Romney. If El Rushbo truly believes that Romney "is a candidate on our side who does embody all three legs of the conservative stool" then he needs to hang up his Golden Microphone, for he has lost all sense of discernment. I truly don't think Rush is dumb enough to believe that is true. So why does he think that we voters are dumb enough to believe it just because we hear it proclaimed on our AM radios?

What has happened to Rush? The reason he was once entertaining is because he'd tell us "Dittoheads" what we already knew was true (e.g., liberal are silly). That was his shtick and he did it well. But somewhere along the way he started taking himself too seriously. He seems to think that he is the adjudicator of who and what is considered to be "conservative." For him to give the impression that he is some sort of thought leader is both mildly amusing and moderately insulting. His primary audience is conservatives, a group that doesn’t take its guidance on how to vote from entertainers (and yes, Rush is first and foremost, an entertainer).
As a pundit I understand that having 12 million listeners per week is reason to be in awe of Rush. But as a voter that doesn't impress me much. If I need someone with a large audience to tell me how to vote I'll turn to Wolf from American Gladiators.

Pundit-based reality: McCain will destroy the GOP.Voter-based reality: McCain is the leading choice for a majority of the GOP.

Listen, McCain is not my first choice. But he appears to be the inevitable choice of our party. If he's nominated I'll vote for him for the simple fact that his is far better than Obama or Clinton. If you disagree, then quietly vote for the third party candidate of your choice. But for heaven's sakes, stop whining, stop hyperventilating, and stop all the hyperbolic, Tony-award worthy dramatics. It's unbecoming.

The animosity toward McCain is even more bizarre when you consider that he's not that different than the other "acceptable" candidates. Fred Thompson co-sponsored McCain-Feingold and no one accused him of tearing up the 1st Amendment. Romney was for abortion, amnesty, and an assault weapons ban until--what, last week?--and no one seems to hold that against him. And Giuliani, a candidate that really would have rent the party in two, was once touted as the only alternative to Hillary the Inevitable.

Now, McCain is considered to be less acceptable than Hillary. I don’t get that at all. The Coulter-Clinton-Buchanan Axis is not in the best interest of the party, our movement, or our nation.
It's time we gain some perspective. As Daniel Patrick Moynihan once said, "Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts." The voters have presented us with facts that we can no longer deny. It's time for us to to face up to our situation and stop living in the fantasy realm of a pundit-based reality.

Update: If I seem a bit harsh on Romney, I have my reasons—and it has nothing to do with his religion. See this post for The Case Against Romney. Email Joe Carter